Greater Vancouver home prices predicted to keep climbing – at slower rate

Residential sales forecast to slow further this year but recover next year

Home sales across Greater Vancouver may be soft so far this year compared with the past couple of years, but that won’t be enough to bring average prices down, according to a forecast by the British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA).

In its quarterly outlook, the BCREA predicted that Greater Vancouver home sales on the MLS for the whole of 2018 will total 37,200 units, which is down 10.7 per cent compared with 2017 – but that transactions will recover somewhat in 2019 to rise 3.7 per cent.

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The report said the average Greater Vancouver home sale price this year will be $1.08 million, which is 4.7 per cent higher than 2017’s average price of $1.03 million. BCREA added that it expected a continued slight rise of 2.3 per cent next year, to just over $1.1 million. This average encompasses all property types and all areas of the region, and doesn’t take into account larger variables between different property types and neighbourhood sub-markets.

“The housing market continues to be supported by a strong economy,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA chief economist. “However, slower economic growth is expected over the next two years as the economy is nearing full employment and consumers have stepped back from their 2017 spending spree.”

Across the province, residential resales are forecast to fall nine per cent to 94,200 units this year, following 103,700 unit sales in 2017, and stay flat in 2019. However, the BCREA said that B.C. sales are “expected to remain above the 10-year average of 84,800 units into 2020.”

BCREA BC home sales forecast into 2019
Source: BCREA

“Demographics will play a key role in the housing market over the next few years,” added Muir, “as growth in the adult-aged population is bolstered by immigration and the massive millennial generation enters its household forming years.”

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