For the first time, we have local(ish) COVID-19 details.
As of last week, the BC Centre for Disease Control has started releasing community health service area-level data. This means that instead of having only general West Vancouver data, there’s data for the combined region of Bowen Island, Bowyer Island, Hutt Island, Passage Island, Brunswick Beach and Lions Bay. As of the 2016 census, this area had a population of 5,090 people.
The data from last week (as of Thursday morning, we're still waiting on this week's numbers) showed that as of May 10 in the Bowen Island/Lions Bay area:
- 59 per cent of all adults 18 and older have had their first dose of a vaccine.
- The percentage of residents with one dose rises to 84 per cent for those 55 and over.
For the week of May 4 through May 10 in the Bowen Island/Lions Bay area:
- The average daily rate of new cases reported per population of 100,000 was 7.8.
- The change from the previous week in average daily case rate was 2.8.
- The test positivity rate was 9.6 per cent.
- The absolute change from the previous week in test positivity was 7.1 per cent.
Data analysis from Dave Pollard
Bowen’s Dave Pollard worked with epidemiologists as a data analyst after SARS-1. He took last week’s BC CDC numbers and used them to compute the probable actual incidence of COVID-19 on Bowen:
“Since we have about 3,800 people on Bowen, the BC CDC’s reported average daily new case rate of 7.8 per 100,000 for the Bowen/Lions Bay CHSA works out to an average of 2.0 new cases on Bowen per week. Research from the University of Washington’s IHME suggests that only about 53 per cent of actual B.C. cases are being reported (since many are asymptomatic), so actual new cases might be running closer to four per week on Bowen. The Harvard Health guideline suggests those people may be contagious for up to two weeks.
“That four per week estimate is just an average, and because the disease spreads often in clusters, week-to-week fluctuations could be substantial. This data is by place of residence, by the way, so it does not include visitors who live off the island.
“B.C. is currently reporting about 3,500 new cases a week (as of May 17), so Bowen’s two per week represents only 0.057 per cent of the province’s total. If Bowen’s share of the province’s cases to date is the same 0.057 per cent, that would suggest that about 80 of B.C.’s 140,000 reported cases to date are Bowen Islanders. Including asymptomatic and unreported cases might increase that to about 150 Bowen Islanders (about four per cent of our residents) infected to date.”
Vaccination clinic May 29
Bowen Island will have its first vaccine clinic in more than a month on May 29 at BICS. Everyone 12 and over is now eligible to book the vaccine.
The Undercurrent has received questions asking if second shots will be available at the Bowen clinic. The answer is complicated. There’s an up to 16-week window between doses in B.C. If you are registered (getvaccinated.gov.bc.ca/s/ or call 1-833-838-2323) you’ll be notified when you can book your second shot.
Register for your second shot
Even if you’ve received your first dose of the vaccine, you may not be registered for your second dose. Vancouver Coastal Health advises that if you received your first dose of any COVID vaccine:
- before April 15
- as a health-care worker or priority frontline worker before May 3;
- at a pharmacy;
- in long-term care or assisted living; or
- at a community outreach clinic in Whistler or Squamish,
you need to ensure you’re registered to make sure you’re notified when you become eligible for the second dose.
