Metro Vancouverites will likely enjoy a warmer-than-average summer, although forecast confidence has decreased.
Environment Canada Meteorologist Derek Lee tells V.I.A. that the department has long expected temperatures to rise above the seasonal average this summer. However, the international climate models now indicate a lower probability.
"Metro Vancouver will more likely be warmer than normal, but the overall confidence has dropped a little," he clarifies.
For precipitation, the jury is still out.
"There's no good story for precipitation," he notes. "Although there is a drier signal for June."
Lee adds that long-range precipitation forecasts typically don't have confidence. For June, the signal relies heavily on the short- to medium-length forecast.
Meteorological summer kicked off on June 1 and continues through Aug. 30. After June, the department doesn't have a precipitation forecast.
The summer Metro Vancouver weather forecast doesn't include a conclusive precipitation forecast
In 2024, June saw largely seasonal temperatures and precipitation amounts. Conditions were significantly warmer and drier in June 2023 ahead of a particularly destructive wildfire season.
"Any precipitation is welcome because we won't see any for the next little while," he notes, adding that the summer sees minimal precipitation compared to the rest of the year.
Environment Canada's seasonal forecast provides a three-month overview of summer weather. However, it doesn't include specific events, such as heat domes, storms, or floods. Meteorologists typically see these weather patterns develop within five to 10 days, but won't issue a warning until days before the event, since conditions may shift.
In the June 2021 heat dome, the most lethal weather event in B.C. history, claiming 600 lives, was observed roughly 10 days in advance because it was a notably strong ridge of high pressure.
The current Metro Vancouver weather forecast includes sizzling temperatures for the weekend of June 7 and 8.
Lee says a ridge of high pressure will start to build heading into the weekend, providing conditions for temperatures to soar to highs possibly exceeding the regional average (18 C) by over 10 C.
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